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青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司(www.joshualeeproperties.com)整理发布  2015-11-17


青岛希尼尔翻译公司(www.joshualeeproperties.com)2015年11月17日了解到:随着中国在委内瑞拉等依赖石油的意识形态盟友之外寻求多样化投资,巴西正逐渐成为拉美承接中国投资的代表性国家。Brazil is slowly taking over as the standard-bearer for Chinese investment in Latin America as the people’s republic diversifies away from oil-dependent ideological allies such as Venezuela.

Beijing’s growing presence in what Washington considers its “backyard” has allowed Latin American leaders an amount of welcome independence from the US and has freed them to pursue pet projects. Between 2010-14, $90bn in lending from China to Latin America exceeded disbursements to the region from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), according to a report from Boston University’s Global Economic Governance Initiative. 北京方面在华盛顿视为“后院”的拉美地区日益扩大的存在,使得拉美各国领导人获得了相对美国的可喜独立性,也使他们能够自由地上马自己偏爱的工程。波士顿大学(Boston University)“全球经济治理计划”(Global Economic Governance Initiative)发布的一份报告显示,2010年至2014年,拉美从中国得到的900亿美元贷款,超过了该地区从世界银行(World Bank)和泛美开发银行(Inter-American Development Bank)获得贷款的总和。

Nowadays, the purse across the Pacific is no longer quite so open. The steep drop in oil prices is correlated with a weakening in investments by China into oil-dependent nations. In Latin America, that means China is pivoting away from “left-leaning” friends such as Venezuela or Ecuador towards other countries, including Brazil and Chile. 如今,来自太平洋彼岸的金主不再那么大方。在油价暴跌之际,中国对石油依赖国的投资减弱。在拉美,这意味着中国的投资重心正在离开委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔等“左倾”盟友,向包括巴西、智利在内的其他国家转移。

“The Chinese government has become more cautious when it comes to loans since Xi and Li took power, especially loans to countries like Venezuela and Ecuador,” says Li Renfang, Latin American analyst at Southwest University of Science and Technology, of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, respectively China’s president and premier. “自习、李上台以来,中国政府对贷款变得更加谨慎,尤其是对给委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔等国家的贷款,”西南科技大学(Southwest University of Science and Technology)拉美问题专家李仁方在谈到中国国家主席习近平和总理李克强时说。

“In the past, Chinese investment in those countries had ideological and political undertones but today we give more weight to economic concerns,” says Mr Renfang. “过去,中国对这些国家的投资带有意识形态和政治色彩,但如今我们更看重经济得失,”李仁方说。

China’s new caution stems not only from lower oil prices, but also the fact that its own growth is slowing, which has cooled its ability to spin off cash into investments overseas. However, the interdependence built over the decade-long commodities boom is not easily shaken. A slowdown in China’s GDP has hit currencies hard in Latin America. The August crash of the Shanghai stock market sent Brazilian equities to their lowest level since 2009. 中国新的谨慎态度不仅缘自油价下跌,还缘自本国增长的放缓,后者限制了其投资海外的能力。然而,在持续10年的大宗商品繁荣期中所建立起的相互依赖不会被轻易动摇。中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓已对拉美各国货币造成重创。上海股市今年8月的暴跌使得巴西股市跌至2009年以来的最低水平。

A study by Eileen Fahey, chief credit officer at Fitch Ratings, showed that the countries and companies in Latin America that are most exposed to a slowdown in Chinese demand are also the ones that trade with, or borrow most heavily from, China. This creates the potential for a vicious cycle as China and commodity markets cool in tandem. 惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)首席信贷官艾琳?费伊(Eileen Fahey)所做的一项研究表明,受中国需求放缓影响最大的拉美国家和企业,也是与中国的贸易量最大或者从中国贷款最多的那些。随着中国与大宗商品市场先后降温,这有可能造成一种恶性循环。

“There was a discernible drop in both the number of transactions and overall project value” after the collapse in oil and commodity prices in the summer of 2014, says Andrew Davenport, chief operating officer at RWR Advisory, a Washington research company that tracks global Chinese and Russian deals. RWR咨询(RWR Advisory)首席运营官安德鲁?达文波特(Andrew Davenport)说,2014年夏天石油及大宗商品价格暴跌后,“交易数量和总项目价值都出现了明显下降”。RWR咨询是一家位于华盛顿的研究公司,主要追踪中国与俄罗斯在全球的交易。

Before the collapse, transactions had been rising steadily following a jump in activity in 2011. While it may take some time before China has truly diversified its investments in Latin America, Mr Davenport says: “There is evidence that the ship is turning in this direction.” 在暴跌发生前,交易在2011年活跃度大增后一直处于稳步上升状态。虽然中国真正实现对拉美投资多元化可能还需要一段时间,但达文波特说,“有证据表明,中国正在转向这一方向”。

This shift favours Brazil, the commodities powerhouse that is already China’s second-largest supplier of iron ore and soybeans. 这种转变对巴西有利。作为主要大宗商品出口国,巴西早已是中国的第二大铁矿石和大豆供应国。

“Brazil is a prime investment destination for China,” says Fan Hesheng, director at the Institute of Latin America Studies at Anhui University. “Venezuela carries many risks because it relies on oil too much. Its economic structure is not well organised and if it takes a hit from falling commodity prices it will present a lot of trouble.” “巴西是中国主要的投资目的地,”安徽大学(Anhui University)拉丁美洲研究所(Institute of Latin America Studies)所长范和生说,“由于过于依赖石油,委内瑞拉存在许多风险。该国经济结构不平衡,如果遭遇大宗商品价格下跌的打击,将带来很多麻烦!

China’s opening came only after Brazil ran into difficulty accessing capital from western banks. A corruption scandal has impeded state-owned energy company Petrobras’s access to bond markets. Enter China, which rode to the rescue with a $10bn line of credit in May. Half is from China Development Bank, which underwrote most of China’s oil-backed loans to Venezuela a few years ago. 中国是在巴西从西方银行获得资金出现困难之后,才得到了向其投资的机会。一桩腐败丑闻阻碍了国有能源公司巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)利用债市筹资。于是中国就登场了,今年5月,中国向其提供100亿美元信贷额度,以解其燃眉之急。其中一半来自国开行(China Development Bank),几年前,中国向委内瑞拉发放的多数以石油为支撑的贷款都是国开行核发的。

Other big deals followed. In May, Vale, the mining company, sealed a credit agreement of up to $4bn with state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). And Three Gorges, a Chinese hydropower company, bought two dams and a trading subsidiary from Brazilian infrastructure group Triunfo in August, for up to $538m. 随后中巴两国签订了其他巨额交易。今年5月,矿业公司淡水河谷( Vale)与中国国有银行工商银行(ICBC)签订了一项最高达40亿美元的信贷协议。今年8月,中国水电集团长江三峡公司(Three Gorges)以最高达5.38亿美元的价格,从巴西基础设施集团Triunfo手中收购了两个水电站和一家贸易子公司。

The opportunities revealed by the oil bust could open the door to direct Chinese investments in Brazil that have proven elusive in the past. For example, a wave of Chinese manufacturing agreements concluded 10 years ago mostly failed to materialise — but now Chinese money could flow into the oil sector. And Chinese companies had been generally locked out of direct holdings in Brazil’s agricultural sector, until Cofco’s purchase of Dutch grains trader Nidera last year. 油价暴跌带来的机遇可能为中国对巴西直接投资打开了大门,过去,中国一直不得其门而入。例如,10年前达成的一波中国制造协议多数未能落实(但如今,中国的资金或能流向石油行业)。在中粮(Cofco)去年收购荷兰粮食交易商奈德拉(Nidera)之前,中国企业基本上一直不被允许直接持有巴西农业企业的股份。



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