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油价今年能反弹到什么高度?(中英双语)

青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司(www.joshualeeproperties.com)整理发布  2016-01-04

  

青岛希尼尔翻译公司(www.joshualeeproperties.com)2016年1月4日了解到:There are two divergent views of what is happening to the oil price ithin the industry and among serious investors. 2016 may help us to see which is correct.

当前油价正在发生什么变化?在业内人士和严肃的投资者中间,对这个问题有两种不同的看法。2016年油价走势或许有助我们看清哪种观点是正确的。

The first view is that the price is inherently cyclical. What has come down must go back up again and the deeper the trough the higher the next mountain.

第一种看法是,油价本质上具有周期性。下跌之后必然会回升。这道波谷越深,下一个山峰就越高。

The alternative analysis is that the shift we have seen over the past three years is the beginning of a long-term structural shift which will see energy prices materially lower in real terms in the next half century than in the last. Those who take this view believe, to put it very simply, that the likely growth in supply is stronger than the growth in demand.

另一种看法是,油价在过去三年中的变动,是长期结构性变化的开始,预示着下一个50年里能源价格按实际值计算将显著低于上一个50年。简单地说,持这种看法的人认为,供给的增长潜力超过需求增长。

Of course the two approaches are not totally incompatible. There are clearly still short-term cyclical issues which cannot be ignored. The Chinese economy will come out of recession at some point not least because if it does not President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist party will be in big trouble. We will surely have price spikes — after all political decisions, not least in Saudi Arabia, are still important factors in shaping the market and much of the world’s supply comes from countries in the Middle East and north and west Africa, which are inherently unstable.

这两种观点当然并非完全对立。很明显,一些不容忽视的短期周期性问题仍然存在。中国经济有一天将走出低迷,一个重要原因是,不然的话,中国国家主席习近平和中共就有大麻烦了。我们肯定会看到油价上涨的时候——毕竟政治决定(特别是沙特的政治决定)仍是影响石油市场的重要因素,而世界很大一部分石油供应来自中东、北非和西非的国家,这些地区向来不稳定。

But the structural factors are more important because they set the upper limit to the extent and durability of any such spikes. No one knows where the ceiling is (my guess is $60 a barrel) but it is clear that if you accept the structural argument you must also accept that the ceiling itself is liable to fall over time.

但结构性因素更为重要,因为它们决定着任何可能出现的上涨的最大高度和最长持续时间。谁也不知道天花板有多高(我估计是每桶60美元),但显而易见的是,如果你接受结构说,你也必须承认,天花板本身有可能随着时间推移而降低。

The overwhelming weight of the coverage of the oil market by analysts and commentators concentrates on the supply side and the volumes being produced and exported from Saudi Arabia or elsewhere. Supply is important but costs matter more.

分析师和评论员们对石油市场的解读着重于供应端,以及沙特或其他地方的产量和出口量。供给很重要,但成本更重要。

Some people remain attached to a theory that can be described as resource scarcity. At its heart this theory suggests that resource development follows a linear pattern in which low-cost resources are developed first, meaning that most if not all future development must be more costly. Unfortunately the history of the industry does not support this view. If anything the experience of the past few decades suggests that the opposite is true.

有些人仍坚持一种可称为“资源稀缺”的理论。该理论的核心是,资源开发遵循线性模式,低成本的资源最先被开发,也就是说,未来大部分乃至全部开发活动的成本一定会更高。遗憾的是,行业发展历史并不支持这一观点。过去几十年的经验表明,情况正相反。

Exploration and production costs are on average lower now than when I joined the industry almost 40 years ago. Multiple technical advances — from advanced seismic analysis to enhanced recovery techniques — allow companies to produce more for less. The cost reductions have been pushed on by each cyclical fall in prices — in the mid 1980s, late 1990s and now over the past two years. When prices fall companies find different and cheaper ways of working. Such cost reductions set a new baseline and soon spread across a global industry.

平均而言,当前的勘探和生产成本低于将近40年前我刚入行的时候。各种技术进步——从先进的地震分析到更高的采收率——使油企得以降低成本,提高产量。成本下降受到了油价每一次周期性下跌的推动——如上世纪80年代中期、90年代末期和过去两年。当价格下跌时,油企会找到不同的、成本更低的方法进行作业。成本下降确立了新基准,并很快在全球整个行业中普及开来。

The North Sea which was said to be uneconomic at prices below $80 a barrel two years ago is still going strong. The break-even price is now said to be around $60 and, of course, in cash terms alone it is much lower. Once platforms and infrastructure are in place the actually operating costs of an oilfield are very low indeed.

两年前,据说如果价格低于每桶80美元,在北海地区生产石油是缺乏经济效益的。如今北海产量仍很高。新的盈亏平衡点在每桶60美元左右,当然,仅按现金计算的话就又低了许多。一旦平台和基础设施到位,油田的实际经营成本是很低的。

In the US despite numerous pronouncements of doom crude oil production in November was up 265,000 barrels a day compared to November 2014. Behind the headline the story is mixed and some areas are clearly more expensive. But the main tight oil provinces such as the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota have carried on producing because costs have fallen. Platts — one of the most serious and objective observers of the market — suggests in its latest report that production in both areas could go still higher, even at current prices. The shale industry in the US is well on the way to being viable at $50 and I don’t doubt that many producers would continue to thrive at even lower prices. If some production is held back waiting for prices to go up again the prospect is of a new surge of supply whenever there is an increase.

在美国,尽管原油生产屡屡被宣判末日到来,11月原油日产量同比却增加了26.5万桶。在大标题背后,故事错综复杂,有部分地区的成本显然更高。但德州的鹰福特(Eagle Ford)和北达科他州巴肯(Bakken)等致密油产区一直在生产,因为成本已有所下降。普氏能源资讯(Platts)——最严肃、最客观的石油市场观察者之一——在最新报告中表示,即便价格处于目前水平,上述两个地区的产量仍有可能进一步增加。美国页岩产业在每桶50美元的价格水平上可以很好地维持下去,而我相信,许多生产商在更低的价格水平上仍会过得很滋润。如果有些地方减产以待价格回升,那么一旦价格上涨,供应量可能再次大幅增加。

The cyclical theory depends on a dearth of new investment creating a supply crunch in two, three or five years. A lot of projects are being postponed but postponement is no more than a signal to project managers to find a way of cutting costs. Many are doing exactly that.

周期性理论的依据是,新投资不足将导致两三年或五年后出现供应紧张。大量的项目已被延迟,但这对于项目经理而言,不过是要想办法削减成本的一种信号。许多项目经理目前就在这么做。

I can well imagine that in 2016 the oil price will bounce back from its current sub $40 level. The Saudis may try to cut production, there could be more conflict in Iraq, terrorists could attack some of the prize targets such as the oil terminals at Ras Tanura and Abqaiq. Anything is possible, something is likely. But the question is how far the bounce will go.

可以想象,2016年油价将从当前不到40美元的水平上反弹。沙特或许会尝试减产,伊拉克可能会爆发更多冲突,恐怖主义分子可能会攻击一些重要目标,比如沙特拉斯坦努拉(Ras Tanura)和阿巴奇克(Abqaiq)的石油终端。一切皆有可能,有些事情发生的可能性更大一些。但问题在于,油价反弹的幅度将有多大?

If the bounce is minimal and transitory it will be clear that the structural shift is under way. I hope the companies which are over invested in expensive projects and countries still overwhelmingly dependent on oil and gas revenues are ready.

如果反弹幅度小、时间短,那么显然结构性变化已经开始了。我希望,过多投资于大成本项目的公司以及仍然高度依赖于油气收入的国家对此做好了准备。

来源:新浪网


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